06-08-2012 12:49 Belarus
Business climate index of Belarus real economy up to 25.7% in June
The business climate index of the real economy of Belarus went from minus 3.6% in January 2012 to 25.7% in June. In June alone the index gained 1.9 percentage points, reads an analytical review released by the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus.
BelTA has been told, the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus calculates the business climate index every month. It is an integral indicator evaluating actual and expected changes in the output of merchandise and services as well as the demand for merchandise and services.
To calculate the business climate index for June 2012, the Bank polled heads of 1,995 enterprises that operate in the production sector, transportation, civil engineering, and trade. The figure indicates that the number of respondents, who believe the present state and expected changes of the business climate are positive, exceeds the number of pessimists by 25.7%. The business climate index started declining in April 2011 to fall below zero in October 2011, the first time since January 2010.
Those polled believe that in June 2012 the index improved thanks to an actual increase in demand and the output. If seasonal trends are disregarded, the business climate index stands at 14.9%, 1.2 percentage points up from May 2012 and 10.7 percentage points up from May 2011.
The growth rate of the output of producing operations (contract works, transportation services) was accelerated as well as the workload of manufacturing facilities (rolling stock) and sales. The growth rate of demand went up. It is attributed to the larger number of contracts on the home market and the falling number of contracts on the foreign market.
The effect of turnover assets availability, lending terms, and business activity risks on performance of the enterprises continued declining. The impact of Belarusian ruble exchange rate changes increased a bit, however, the majority of those polled believe it is moderate (65.5% of the respondents). As many as 55.7% of those polled said they experienced a shortage of turnover assets.
The growth of factory prices for products of the enterprises slowed down (transportation tariffs, the level of factory prices, selling prices) while manufacturing costs continued climbing. The reduction of the cash balance in corporate accounts slowed down as well as the growth of overdue accounts payable and receivable.
Net profits went up overall. As many as 67.7% of those polled remarked they would like to see the stable exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against foreign currencies as the chosen policy. The demand for workforce was still in place. It was most acutely felt by civil engineering and transportation industries.
In January-June 2012 the demand, sales, and net profits were below those registered in January-June 2011. In June 2012 the output, manufacturing capacity utilization, and the physical number of orders on the home market were higher than those registered in June 2011.
The growth of manufacturing costs slowed down. While in January-March 2012 it was higher than that in January-March 2011, in April-June 2012 the growth of manufacturing costs was lower than that the year before. The growth rate of selling prices in January-June 2012 was lower than that in January-June 2011.
In January-June 2012 the main factors that influenced the operation of the polled enterprises were demand changes, the availability of proprietary turnover assets, lending terms, business activity risks, overdue accounts receivable and payable. While in January-March 2012 the influence of these factors was stronger than in January-March 2011, the influence weakened as from May 2012.
As far as the near future is concerned, according to the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, in July-September 2012 the polled enterprises expect the growth rate of demand, prices, output, credit need, and the number of people employed in the economy to go down.